Iraq, a nation with a rich history as the 'land between two rivers,' is facing an unprecedented crisis. The Tigris and Euphrates, once symbols of abundance, are now at the heart of a struggle that threatens Iraq's very identity. With severe drought and the impact of upstream dams, these iconic rivers are shrinking, leading to the country's worst water shortages in decades.
The situation is dire for Iraq's over 46 million people. A complex web of factors, including upstream dam construction in neighboring countries, outdated water infrastructure due to years of conflict and sanctions, and government mismanagement, has resulted in a sharp decline in water supply. To make matters worse, climate change-induced drought, the worst in nearly a century, is adding immense pressure.
At the same time, demand is rising due to growing urban populations and a thirsty agricultural sector, which consumes over 80% of Iraq's water resources. Heavy rain and flash floods earlier this month brought temporary relief, but Iraq's dams still face a significant water shortage, according to the country's water resources ministry.
Approximately 60% of Iraq's water relies on sources from neighboring Turkey, yet the country is receiving less water compared to previous years. Upstream dams on the Tigris and Euphrates, particularly those in Turkey, are severely restricting the flow of water to Iraq, resulting in a substantial reduction in water availability and exacerbating the ongoing water scarcity crisis.
Years of corruption and mismanagement have left Iraq in a vulnerable position when it comes to water-sharing agreements. As the water crisis escalates, Iraq has entered into a controversial cooperation deal with Turkey.
In November, the two countries formalized the Water Cooperation Framework Agreement, a multi-billion-dollar initiative. Under this agreement, Turkish firms will construct new infrastructure to improve Iraq's water efficiency and storage. The projects will be financed with Iraqi oil revenues, essentially converting the country's crude oil exports into water security.
The deal involves Iraq selling a daily agreed number of barrels of oil, with the proceeds going towards paying Turkish companies for their work on water infrastructure projects. Initial projects include water harvesting dams and land reclamation initiatives.
Ankara presents this initiative as mutually beneficial for regional stability and economic cooperation. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized their support for Iraq's security and development during the signing ceremony in Baghdad.
Iraq's Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein praised the deal as essential for water security, food production, and economic stability. He highlighted the lack of formal treaties governing water from the Tigris and Euphrates, leaving Baghdad vulnerable.
"For the first time, there is a clear and binding mechanism for water sustainability in the Tigris and Euphrates," said Torhan al-Mufti, water affairs adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. "This agreement ensures a continuous water flow based on Iraq's actual needs in agriculture, industry, and human consumption."
However, the agreement has sparked skepticism and concern among some Iraqi politicians and water experts. Shurook Alabayachi, a water policy expert and politician, believes water should be a human right, not a commodity tied to oil revenues. She warns that the deal with Turkey "departs from internationally recognized principles of water diplomacy."
Alabayachi calls for a long-term, sovereign, and internationally aligned water policy, including reforming Iraq's agriculture sector. Some fear the deal could weaken Iraq's long-term control over its natural resources, with experts warning of potential threats to the country's sovereignty.
Iraqi officials have defended the agreement, emphasizing that water management will remain under Iraqi sovereignty. Nevertheless, experts highlight key advantages for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who may use the deal to strengthen his domestic position and regional diplomacy, as well as for energy security.
The agreement aligns with Erdogan's goal of expanding Turkey's influence across the Middle East and could provide an alternative energy source, especially with US President Donald Trump urging Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil. Iraqi oil, comparable in quality to Russian oil, becomes a natural substitute, according to Gönül Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute's Turkey Program.
For most Iraqis, the water crisis is not just a policy debate but a daily battle for survival. Over 168,000 people have been displaced due to climate and environmental pressures, including drought, according to a recent report from the International Organization for Migration. Thousands of farmers have had to take temporary jobs or abandon agriculture altogether as water shortages worsen.
Ahmed al-Jash'ami, a former farmer from Iraq's Babel province, recalls the heartbreak of watching his father's orchard wither away due to dwindling water supplies. Hussam Anizan, from the outskirts of Fallujah, shares a similar story, having sold his farm due to the water crisis.
Both men blame government mismanagement and corruption for the deepening crisis, pushing farmers across Iraq into new lives they never envisioned. Yet Anizan holds onto cautious optimism about the oil-for-water agreement, hoping it might bring a glimmer of hope.
The water crisis in Iraq is a complex and emotional issue, with potential long-term implications for the country's sovereignty and natural resources. It remains to be seen how this controversial deal will impact Iraq's future and whether it can provide a sustainable solution to the ongoing water scarcity crisis.
