The race is on for Iraq and the United Arab Emirates to secure alternative oil pipelines as the Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint for their exports. With the Strait of Hormuz closed due to the war, both countries are seeking to diversify their oil export routes, but the challenges are significant.
Iraq, heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports, has approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network. This pipeline, which can transport up to 770,000 barrels per day, offers an alternative route to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The move is crucial for Iraq's economy, which heavily depends on oil, contributing 53% to its real GDP in 2025. However, the pipeline's full capacity is yet to be realized, and the country's overall exports have suffered due to its geographical dependence on Hormuz.
The UAE, on the other hand, is fast-tracking the construction of the West-East pipeline to Fujairah, aiming to double the export capacity of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). This pipeline, expected to be operational in 2027, will help the UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the potential risks, including attacks from Iranian drones, the UAE still has the Fujairah terminal, which provides a degree of flexibility.
However, the challenges are far from over. The East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, a potential alternative, has been attacked by Iran, and the Fujairah terminal has also faced disruptions. The combined capacity of these pipelines is estimated at 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day, but this is still significantly lower than the prewar levels of around 20 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz.
Developing alternative export routes is a complex and time-consuming process, requiring massive investments in infrastructure and transnational agreements. The ongoing war and the risk of attacks by Iranian forces or U.S. sanctions further complicate matters. As the situation in the region remains volatile, both Iraq and the UAE must navigate these challenges to ensure their energy security and economic stability.
