China's economic influence in Africa is set to reach new heights, with bilateral trade projected to surpass $200 billion in 2025, despite a slight dip from the previous year's record. This trend highlights a significant shift in global trade dynamics, especially as the US-China trade tensions persist under the Trump Administration's tariff policies.
Chinese exports to Africa are expected to hit the $200 billion mark by the end of 2025, with machinery, heavy equipment, automobiles, and metal products leading the way. This surge in exports comes as Chinese companies seek alternatives to the US market, while African governments strengthen their supply chain ties with China. Simultaneously, African exports to China have also risen, but the continent's trade deficit with China has widened to nearly $60 billion, indicating a lopsided trade relationship.
The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on September 30, 2025, is a pivotal moment in US-Africa trade. AGOA has been instrumental in providing tariff-free access for numerous African products to the US market, generating nearly $500 billion in exports over two decades. However, its expiry, coupled with the US-China tariff tensions, has made Africa an increasingly attractive low-tariff sourcing base.
But here's where it gets controversial: The Trump administration's stance on AGOA's extension is unclear, leaving the future of US-Africa trade uncertain. Meanwhile, China has seized the opportunity to become Africa's leading commercial partner, securing vital resources and inputs through extensive trade and investment. This shift has sparked debates about Africa's economic future and its ability to transform its trade relationships.
Afreximbank's 2025 report emphasizes Africa's structural challenges, including a substantial trade-finance gap, exchange rate volatility, and limited manufacturing capacity. These issues hinder Africa's potential to leverage trade for industrial growth. The report calls for a bold reconfiguration of financial and trade systems, advocating for stronger regional institutions, modern trade finance tools, and increased intra-African trade under frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Despite varying industrial capacities across Africa, strong regional demand has fueled the growth in bilateral trade. The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has become a significant trade corridor for Chinese exporters, with machinery and construction equipment dominating imports. However, WAEMU's exports to China remain largely raw materials, perpetuating a trade imbalance.
And this is the part most people miss: The Brookings Institution warns that trade openness without corresponding investments in infrastructure, skills, and governance can reinforce dependency rather than drive transformation. This is evident in China's role as a major financer and builder of African infrastructure projects.
The East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have also experienced robust trade growth with China. The EAC, benefiting from Chinese-built railways and highways, has seen an influx of transport equipment and industrial machinery. SADC, driven by mineral exporters, remains the highest-value trade corridor in Africa-China trade, with South Africa, Angola, Zambia, and the DRC dominating shipments. China's exports to SADC reflect the region's industrial demands, but the trade deficit persists due to the high import content in energy and mining supply chains.
China's zero-tariff program for least-developed countries, expanded in 2025, aims to boost African competitiveness. However, economists argue that without addressing structural issues and diversifying production, Africa's dependence on commodity exports and Chinese imports will persist, hindering meaningful progress in reducing the trade deficit.
ISS Africa's commentary underscores the need for African countries to strengthen their industrial base and global value chain linkages. The current reliance on raw material exports and Chinese imports may hinder Africa's long-term growth and industrialization, emphasizing the importance of a balanced and strategic approach to trade and economic development.
